Trichet is aware that Governments and central banks have made extreme efforts to overcome the crisis, which must be reversed as soon as possible, if they don’t want that when the economic recovery, they are transformed into pressure for inflation factors and asset prices. While Trichet begins to overcome the crisis, since the ECB is still noting risks of an increase in non-payment in the credit market, which may deepen the economic decline: there is no room for complacency because the risks for financial stability remain high, especially since the credit cycle has not reached yet a valley. While the world wants to believe that the worst of the crisis already has fallen behind, the World Bank returns pessimism estimating a contraction of 2.9 percent in the global economy (after – 1.7% in March), and 3% for the United States. Justin Lin, the World Bank argued on ABC: the need to restructure the banking system, combined with the restrictions high-income countries have begun to impose on expansionist policies, it will prevent the recovery of the world economy copper force. This pessimism of the BM was infected yesterday to stock markets that behaved towards the low and also impacted on currencies saw a dollar strengthening against the yen and the euro. Also people in the OECD maintains its pessimism about economic prospects. CNN Expansion, the head of the OECD, Jose Angel Gurria, said: we see a very difficult 2009, with negative growth in the OECD area. Unemployment problems will persist.
The OECD expects a contraction of 4.3 percent in 2009 and 0.1% in 2010 for their economies. In this disagreement about whether the global economy has awakened from the nightmare, investors have involved the price of oil which had been noting a strong recovery in the year, surpassing the $70 barrel, thanks to optimists bets. The Wall Street Journal recognized that the oil had been subject to speculative actions that gambled to an early recovery of the economy: crude oil and other commodities have been key vehicles for investors to bet on the recovery of the economy.